Forecast Studio
Model leaderboard, prediction intervals, and backtesting for governed forecasts.
Peak forecast
207.0 MW
Peak time
Thu 20:00
CV MAPE (selected)
8.74%
Coverage 90%
91.00%
Substation A-12 · next 24 h
Last 72 h actuals (white) + ensemble forecast (teal) with 80% & 95% conformal intervals.
Model: LightGBMConformal v1Threshold 195 MW
Exceedance prob ≥ threshold
18.4%
Forecast bias
+0.2%
Pinball loss
5.9
Ensemble composition
Inverse-MAPE top-5 weighting. Components were validated to beat SeasonalNaive on 3-fold CV.
LightGBM
31%
Temporal Fusion Transformer
27%
N-BEATS
21%
ARIMA (auto)
13%
RandomForest
8%